Coffee prices are making headlines, and for good reason. Over the next few months, prices are expected to rise by double digits, and the reasons go far beyond simple market fluctuations.
Climate change and supply challenges
Brazil and Vietnam, two of the world’s largest coffee producers, have faced extreme weather, severely impacting harvests. Rising temperatures are preventing coffee flowers from transforming into berries, putting long-term supply at risk. If Brazil’s 2025 crop underperforms, global coffee stocks could hit their lowest level in 65 years.
Consumption outpacing production
For the first time in decades, the world has been drinking more coffee than it produces—by 15 to 20 million bags annually for the last four years. This supply-demand imbalance is pushing prices higher.
Geopolitical uncertainty
Colombia, the third-largest coffee producer, faces potential trade tariffs that could further disrupt the market. Even the threat of tariffs is enough to drive uncertainty and speculation.
Historic highs and market trends
Coffee prices are nearing their highest levels since 1977, with retail coffee prices expected to rise between 20% and 25%. The cost of coffee is finally reflecting the reality of a fragile supply chain, unpredictable climate conditions, and increased global demand.
What do you think about these market changes? Are we finally seeing coffee priced at its true value?